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2024 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

16. A Complex Systems Approach to Uneven Development in Asia: Political Economy and Mathematical Models

verfasst von : Haider A. Khan

Erschienen in: The Indonesian Economy and the Surrounding Regions in the 21st Century

Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore

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Abstract

My main purpose is to explore a somewhat novel complex systems approach to uneven development in a rigorous manner. One salient application is a fairly comprehensive strategy for development as freedom in Asia with tactical differences in different regions flowing out of uneven development, and a nuanced path dependence. Accordingly, I try to find a way to integrate useful markets with the key characteristics of the Enabling Developmental State for the Twenty-First Century to model a growing ecologically sustainable economy with equity in terms of capabilities. Proceeding from a critical capabilities perspective that is fully grounded in social reality of deepening but uneven structural and ecological crises of the global system, we discover that such a perspective leads to the need to include among the characteristics of the Enabling Developmental State for the Twenty-First Century its capacity to build an ecologically sustainable egalitarian development strategy. In addition, democracy must be deepened over time. For Asia, a community of different Asian regions following their own rhythm to reach their own dynamic trajectories toward development as freedom will be possible if they cooperate regionally on the basis of equal sovereignty and mutual respect. One precondition is to pragmatically unite for a common but tactically flexible economic strategy. Tactically, the developmentalists have to be flexible because different Asian countries are at different stages of development and there are many region and country-specific spatiotemporal features that need to be taken into account. There is no single set of tactical blueprints for all in a world of uneven development. The complex systems developmental models in the Appendixes can handle regional uneven development. The model has its basis in part on my empirical work on economy-wide modeling of South Korea, Taiwan, and the BRICS.

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Fußnoten
1
See, for example, Khan (1997a, 1998, 2003a, 2004a, b) and the references therein.
 
2
See also the excellent treatments in Durlauf (2005) and Reggiani et al. (2021).
 
3
Nussbaum’s approach is explicitly essentialist. In particular, it is ontologically committed to an Aristotelean approach. Sen is more in line with liberalism. Khan tries to find an explicitly Hegelian synthesis by embedding capabilities socially in a dynamic evolutionary setting.
 
4
In the models discussed in the Appendixes, gender-sensitivity along the lines of Nussbaum and others as well as my own work on BRICS and joint work with Anushree Sinha is incorporated formally as well.
 
5
Prashad (2014) presents a history of the Global South. More importantly, the last chapter of Prashad (2014) discusses critically the details of the emerging movements in the Global South and their transformational potential.
 
6
As Sen and others following Sen have emphasized, equalizing capabilities (in Khan’s formulation, “socially embedded capabilities”) is a more inclusive concept than equalizing income per se.
 
7
Thus, without falling into self-refuting relativism, there is a way to accept epistemic limits, resist imperial power–knowledge–discourse schemes and formulate positive pro-people programs that are internationalist but local and regional at the beginning and with time passing, ultimately global in scope. Along with others, I have argued to accept the proposition that capitalism will not be able to solve the currently unfolding ecological crisis as well as the other crises endogenous to the system. If not the other crises, the ecological crisis itself, left unchecked, will destroy human civilization. Thus, capitalism is a complex exploitative system, which must be transformed into a more harmonious people and nature-oriented system. In fact, I have tried to make many of the cultural and ecological criticisms in addition to the critical political economy analysis of global capital, starting with Khan (1983) and continuing till now, without falling into the epistemological and ethical–political impasse of the post-development school (Khan 1998, 2009). On ecological crisis and capitalism in the twenty-first century, see Li (2008), Khan and Lippit (1993, 2007), and Khan (1997a, b, 1998, 2010).
 
8
As I point out later, the models are based at least partly on the East Asian experience and solid empirical work on East Asian economic, political, and social development.
 
9
See Khan and Lippit (1993, 2007), Khan and Liu (2008), Khan (2010), and Sachs (2015).
 
10
Our modeling of energy and environment empirically also underlies the modeling in the Appendixes. Sinha and Khan (2010) present an empirical implementation of gender-sensitive SAM-based CGE model for BRICS. This work provides a gender-sensitive economy-wide model with empirical results that motivates the complex systems modeling strategy discussed.
 
11
However, see for an insightful and nuanced discussion of Vietnam’s trade-orientation and policies for the textiles sector.
 
12
See Jomo and Nagaraj (2001) for a good discussion of heterodoxy in this context.
 
13
See Jomo and Wee (2008:10).
 
14
See also Lee (2006) for a contrast of Korean experience with the Washington consensus and Khan (1997a, b, 1998, 2002, 2008a, b) for a discussion of the Korean (and Taiwanese) case(s) in the context of a distributionally sensitive growth model for positive feedback loop innovation system.
 
15
This is not to say that the quantity does not matter. Also, for very poor countries today, aid can fill crucial financing gaps. See Khan (2003b) on these issues. However, surrendering domestic decision-making capability and flexibility to foreign experts in exchange for aid is not strategically helpful. If there is such a pressure, then it may be necessary to forego aid.
 
16
See Chang (2007) for a number of thoughtful contributions on this topic among other things.
 
17
I am grateful to a thoughtful referee for pointing out this important model selection issue that remains an open problem. Nonlinearities of the kind I introduce and discuss are tolerant of different nonlinear specifications. One possible strategy is to estimate the nonlinear functions (e.g., production functions) of different specifications and run econometric specification tests. This is what Khan (1997a, 2004a, b, 2006) attempts. However, a global solution is yet to be found.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
A Complex Systems Approach to Uneven Development in Asia: Political Economy and Mathematical Models
verfasst von
Haider A. Khan
Copyright-Jahr
2024
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0122-3_16