Skip to main content

2024 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Climate Risk in Structural Credit Models

verfasst von : Alexander Blasberg, Rüdiger Kiesel

Erschienen in: Quantitative Energy Finance

Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This survey article reviews the current state of literature on how structural models of credit risk are employed to model the impact of climate risk on financial markets. We discuss how the two prominent types of climate risk, physical and transition risk, are captured by the seminal Merton model and its well-known extensions. Theoretical and practical advantages and drawbacks are worked out and an outlook on possible model improvements is provided.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
Equation (5) is obtained by applying Itô’s formula to obtain the stock price dynamics.
 
2
An alternative is to use the double-exponential distribution advocated by Kou and Wang [22].
 
3
These models build on [25] and require the calculation of various functionals of Brownian motion.
 
4
The distance-to-default is a measure based on the relation of the value process and the default boundary and widely used in variants of the Merton model, see [19] for further discussion.
 
5
Using the EBITDA relies on the assumption that the proportionality to the firm value stays constant over time.
 
Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Rajhi, W., Albuquerque, P.: Banking stability, natural disasters, and political conflicts: time series evidence on causality in developing countries. Economics Discussion Papers (2017) Rajhi, W., Albuquerque, P.: Banking stability, natural disasters, and political conflicts: time series evidence on causality in developing countries. Economics Discussion Papers (2017)
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Kölbel, J., Leippold, M., Rillaerts, J., Wang, Q. Ask BERT: How Regulatory Disclosure of Transition and Physical Climate Risks affects the CDS Term Structure. J. Financ. Econ. Forthcoming (2022) Kölbel, J., Leippold, M., Rillaerts, J., Wang, Q. Ask BERT: How Regulatory Disclosure of Transition and Physical Climate Risks affects the CDS Term Structure. J. Financ. Econ. Forthcoming (2022)
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Bats, J., Bua, G., Kapp, D.: Physical and transition risk premiums in Euro area corporate bond markets. SSRN (2023) Bats, J., Bua, G., Kapp, D.: Physical and transition risk premiums in Euro area corporate bond markets. SSRN (2023)
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Kleimeier, S., Viehs, M.: Carbon disclosure, emission levels, and the cost of debt. SSRN (2018) Kleimeier, S., Viehs, M.: Carbon disclosure, emission levels, and the cost of debt. SSRN (2018)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Jung, J., Herbohn, K., Clarkson, P.: Carbon risk, carbon risk awareness and the cost of debt financing. J. Bus. Ethics 150(4), 1151–1171 (2018)CrossRef Jung, J., Herbohn, K., Clarkson, P.: Carbon risk, carbon risk awareness and the cost of debt financing. J. Bus. Ethics 150(4), 1151–1171 (2018)CrossRef
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Delis, M., de Greiff, K., Ongena, S.: Being stranded on the carbon bubble? Climate policy risk and the pricing of bank loans. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series (2018) Delis, M., de Greiff, K., Ongena, S.: Being stranded on the carbon bubble? Climate policy risk and the pricing of bank loans. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series (2018)
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Duan, T., Li, F.W., Wen, Q. Is Carbon Risk Priced in the Cross-Section of Corporate Bond Returns?. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 1–35 (2023) Duan, T., Li, F.W., Wen, Q. Is Carbon Risk Priced in the Cross-Section of Corporate Bond Returns?. J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 1–35 (2023)
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Seltzer, L., Starks, L.T., Zhu, Q.: Climate regulatory risks and corporate bonds. SSRN (2022) Seltzer, L., Starks, L.T., Zhu, Q.: Climate regulatory risks and corporate bonds. SSRN (2022)
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Capasso, G., Gianfrate, G., Spinelli, M.: Climate change and credit risk. J. Clean. Product. 266, 121634 (2020)CrossRef Capasso, G., Gianfrate, G., Spinelli, M.: Climate change and credit risk. J. Clean. Product. 266, 121634 (2020)CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Ilhan, E., Sautner, Z., Vilkov, G.: Carbon tail risk. Rev. Financ. Stud. 34(3), 1540–1571 (2020)CrossRef Ilhan, E., Sautner, Z., Vilkov, G.: Carbon tail risk. Rev. Financ. Stud. 34(3), 1540–1571 (2020)CrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Barth, F., Hübel, B., Scholz, H.: ESG and corporate credit spreads. J. Risk Financ. 23(2), 169–190 (2022)CrossRef Barth, F., Hübel, B., Scholz, H.: ESG and corporate credit spreads. J. Risk Financ. 23(2), 169–190 (2022)CrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Christ, J., Hertel, T., Zhao, R.: Corporate sustainability performance and the cost of debt – an analysis of the impact of country- and industry-specific climate risk exposures. SSRN (2022) Christ, J., Hertel, T., Zhao, R.: Corporate sustainability performance and the cost of debt – an analysis of the impact of country- and industry-specific climate risk exposures. SSRN (2022)
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Blasberg, A., Kiesel, R., Taschini, L.: Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS. SSRN (2022) Blasberg, A., Kiesel, R., Taschini, L.: Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS. SSRN (2022)
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Bouchet, V., Le Guenedal, T.: Credit risk sensitivity to carbon price. SSRN (2020) Bouchet, V., Le Guenedal, T.: Credit risk sensitivity to carbon price. SSRN (2020)
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Reinders, H.J., Schoenmaker, D., van Dijk, M.: A finance approach to climate stress testing. J. Int. Money Financ. 131, 102797 (2023)CrossRef Reinders, H.J., Schoenmaker, D., van Dijk, M.: A finance approach to climate stress testing. J. Int. Money Financ. 131, 102797 (2023)CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Agliardi, E., Agliardi, R.: Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market. J. Financ. Stabil. 54, 100868 (2021)CrossRef Agliardi, E., Agliardi, R.: Pricing climate-related risks in the bond market. J. Financ. Stabil. 54, 100868 (2021)CrossRef
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Le Guenedal, T., Tankov, P.: Corporate debt value under transition scenario uncertainty. SSRN (2020) Le Guenedal, T., Tankov, P.: Corporate debt value under transition scenario uncertainty. SSRN (2020)
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Bielecki, T.R., Rutkowski, M.: Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging. Springer Finance. Springer, Berlin (2004) Bielecki, T.R., Rutkowski, M.: Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging. Springer Finance. Springer, Berlin (2004)
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Lando, D.: Credit Risk Modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton (2004)CrossRef Lando, D.: Credit Risk Modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton (2004)CrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Merton, R.: On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. J. Financ. 29(2), 449–470 (1974) Merton, R.: On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. J. Financ. 29(2), 449–470 (1974)
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhou, C.: The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk. J. Bank. Financ. 25(11), 2015–2040 (2001)CrossRef Zhou, C.: The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk. J. Bank. Financ. 25(11), 2015–2040 (2001)CrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Kou, S., Wang, H.: Option pricing under a double exponential jump diffusion model. Manag. Sci. 50(9), 1178–1192 (2004)CrossRef Kou, S., Wang, H.: Option pricing under a double exponential jump diffusion model. Manag. Sci. 50(9), 1178–1192 (2004)CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Leland, H.E.: Corporate debt value, bond covenants, and optimal capital structure. J. Financ. 49(4), 1213–1252 (1994)CrossRef Leland, H.E.: Corporate debt value, bond covenants, and optimal capital structure. J. Financ. 49(4), 1213–1252 (1994)CrossRef
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Leland, H.E., Toft, K.B.: Optimal capital structure, endogenous bankruptcy, and the term structure of credit spreads. J. Financ. 51(3), 987–1019 (1996)CrossRef Leland, H.E., Toft, K.B.: Optimal capital structure, endogenous bankruptcy, and the term structure of credit spreads. J. Financ. 51(3), 987–1019 (1996)CrossRef
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Black, F., Cox, J.C.: Valuing corporate securities: some effects of bond indenture provisions. J. Financ. 31(2), 351–367 (1976)CrossRef Black, F., Cox, J.C.: Valuing corporate securities: some effects of bond indenture provisions. J. Financ. 31(2), 351–367 (1976)CrossRef
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Sautner, Z., Van Lent, L., Vilkov, G., Zhang, R.: Firm-level climate change exposure. J. Financ. 78(3), 1449–1498 (2023)CrossRef Sautner, Z., Van Lent, L., Vilkov, G., Zhang, R.: Firm-level climate change exposure. J. Financ. 78(3), 1449–1498 (2023)CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Climate Risk in Structural Credit Models
verfasst von
Alexander Blasberg
Rüdiger Kiesel
Copyright-Jahr
2024
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-50597-3_7