12. Energy Transitions

It is common knowledge that research and development (R&D) and mass manufacturing innovations have been coupled for a dramatic cost reduction for solar PV (Fischer et al. 2020). For Australia, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of utility-scale PV fell 78% from 2010 to 2019 (IRENA 2020b) and solar power dominates the new (2014–2018) renewable energy installed capacity in the 15 PICT partners of The International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) Lighthouses Initiative (IRENA 2020a).

This, underpinned by light emitting diode lighting technology (Cho et al. 2017; Lighting Global 2020) and mobile payments (IEA 2017) has already facilitated the replacement of almost all kerosene lighting (Vanuatu Department of Energy 2016; Prasad and Raturi 2020). Resorts, mini-grids, and health and telecommunications facilities are additional off-grid loads being supplied by PV, but for which there is still a large unmet demand (Prasad and Raturi 2020).

PV is also being applied to cut fuel costs and reduce emissions in PICT grids (see Sect. 12.2.4) where operators allow and technical barriers to intermittent generation can be overcome. Fiji could consume 167 GWh by 2030 in three island grids (Prasad and Raturi 2020), allowing the country to surpass its NDC target (Fiji Ministry of Economy 2018).

In the biggest regional market, Australia remains one of the top ten photovoltaics markets in the world, despite a lack of federal policy direction from 2013–2022, but encouraged by state governments and industrial and residential customers (APVI 2020; Morton and Readfearn 2020). However, the industry is experiencing problems of delays, connection problems, and cost over-runs (Parkinson 2020).

Solar water heaters, in demand in PICT resorts and in the cooler and more affluent regions, are widely available. Supplementary heating, commonly from electricity or gas, is often included and may be effectively mandated in some jurisdictions to reduce risk of Legionnaires’ disease (Queensland Government 2020). Decreasing PV costs have greatly improved the feasibility of heating water with high performance heat pumps (air or water or ground coupled) running on PV-sourced electricity (Behi et al. 2020; Panagiotidou et al. 2020). Water heating can also to absorb excess PV electricity in case of restricted grid exports (Forcey 2015). Geothermal water heating is a third renewable approach (Vasiliev et al. 2017). See also, Sect. 12.2.5.

There are extensive opportunities for advanced water heating in the PICTs but availability, higher capital costs, and access to technical and maintenance support are likely to limit growth in the near term.

Wind turbine hub height, rotor span, and power rating are all growing larger (Earnest and Rachel 2019) as the technology matures and onshore and offshore applications are increasingly competitive. Oceania experienced the largest LCOE reductions (54%) globally between 2010 and 2019 for onshore wind generation and projects are increasingly achieving LCOEs under USD 0.040/kWh (IRENA 2020b).

Australia and New Zealand have installed significant amounts of onshore wind turbines in their grids (ARENA 2020a; EECA 2020). Wind is one of the two main replacement technologies retiring Australian coal-fired power stations but there are concerns that the growth of wind and solar might not be sufficient to avoid a shortfall in power generation (Adisa 2020). Grid access is constraining growth in Australia (Parkinson 2020), but the establishment of renewable energy zones (Heidari et al. 2020; NSW Government 2020) will partially relieve this. A limiting factor for expansion in New Zealand is impending oversupply following the closure of an aluminum smelter (Roy and AAP 2020).

Wind resources are commonly regarded as being too small and/or inconsistent and turbines too prone to cyclone damage for many PICTs, but lowerable turbines have been successfully used in Vanuatu and were assessed to have acceptable payback periods if installed on other islands too (Singh et al. 2019; Joseph and Prasad 2020a).

High shares of renewable energy penetration in microgrids have become feasible and economically attractive over recent decades through rapid technology developments (Veilleux et al. 2020), accessible design support (e.g., GSES India 2015; HOMER 2020) and documented examples (Bushlight 2010; HorizonPower 2020; ITP 2013; Maisch 2020; RMI 2021), although islands have special issues (Marczinkowski et al. 2019). Learnings from other islands can inform developments in the Pacific (Bunker et al. 2020; Locke and Burgess 2020; Burgess and Goodman 2020).

A review was undertaken of business models for the introduction of hybrid renewable energy to islands by Eras-Almeida and Egido-Aguilera (2019). They confirmed that there are vast opportunities to insert renewables into fossil-fueled microgrids but identified that some PICTs need to strengthen their weak regulatory frameworks and define suitable business models to promote renewable energy, involve private entities, and find alternative funding sources. IRENA (2018) identified the major technical challenges to integration of large fractions of renewables into small grids: generation adequacy; supply intermittency; system stability, physical limits of networks; protection systems; and power quality. They proposed planning approaches to overcome those technical concerns.

Potential uses for geothermal heat have been reported, ranging from bathing to electricity generation (Lund 2012). Resources were identified with high or moderate potential for electricity generation, in priority order, in PNG, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga, and Northern Mariana Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia and Solomon Islands (McCoy-West et al. 2009). There is also a major resource in New Zealand, which has been extensively exploited. Papua New Guinea has a large population, unsatisfied energy demand, and a 22 TWh geothermal resource (Kuna and Zehner 2015). Lihir gold mine operates a 50 MW geothermal power plant but non-technical issues appear to be inhibiting further developments, particularly, policy and legal frameworks and, consequently, finance availability (PNG 2012; Mine.OnePNG 2020).

Interest remains active for several nations (Petterson 2016) but an intended 5MW_e and potentially 10 MW_e geothermal power station for Efate Island, Vanuatu (Geodynamics 2014) did not win a contractually committed offtake partnership to allow it to proceed to construction (Fig. 12.4).

Hydro power constitutes a significant share of dispatchable renewable energy generation in PICTs, including in the three most populous, Australia, New Zealand, and PNG (IHA 2019). Hydropower, after solar, constitutes the second most intensive (2014–2018) renewable energy technology in the 15 PICT partners of IRENA’s Light House Initiative. However, the global weighted-average LCOE of newly commissioned hydropower projects has increased 27% relative to 2010 and installed costs in Oceania are high for large (>10 MW) hydropower (IRENA 2020b). In 2014–2018, 18 MW of hydropower were installed in Papua New Guinea and 3.6 MW in Samoa (IRENA 2020a).

Several small hydro power projects have been constructed and are in progress in the PICTs (IHA 2019), but the environmental conditions for project delivery and persistence can be daunting (Vanuatu Daily Post 2020). The 15 MW public–private Tina River project in the Solomon Islands is expected to reduce the country’s reliance on imported diesel and aims to eventually provide 68% of the capital’s electricity demand by 2025 (Tina River Hydropower Development Project 2020) and allow it to overachieve its 2025 emissions reduction target. A recent resource assessment for the Fijian island of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu found that the potential for new hydro could be far greater than that previously identified (Singh 2020).

It is possible to run diesel generators on straight or blended coconut oil (Cloin 2007; Raturi 2012). Grid electricity on Efate Island, Vanuatu has had between 10 and 25% local coconut oil supply supplementing its diesel fuel since 2011 (UNELCO 2019). Raturi (2012) found that PNG, Fiji, and Solomon Islands could produce about 80 ML of coconut oil per year, potentially replacing about 71 ML of diesel. However, while the promise of coconut oil use in modified diesel engines or coco-methyl ester in unmodified diesel engines is well known, there have been some cautionary experiences that should generate hesitation in encouraging rollout for remote community use (Johnston and Wade 2016).

While there are significant opportunities to offset imported fossil fuel with locally supplied renewable coconut oil, progress depends on competing diesel costs. Some PICTs have developed plans to protect coconut supplies (Vanuatu Department of Agriculture and Rural Development 2016; Republic of Vanuatu 2019) but crops are threatened by cyclones (McGarry 2020), pests (Jackson 2017), and land competition (Charan 2020).

Ethanol, from wheat flour or sorghum production, is available as a 10% mix in petrol in eastern Australia (E10 Fuel for Thought n.d.) and co-generation plants operate at several sugar mills which operate on steam produced from bagasse combustion (Hussain 2017). Singh (2020a) found jatropha-based biodiesel production in Fiji to be economically unviable but pongamia biofuel production on marginal land was more promising (Singh 2020b; Prasad and Singh 2020). Bio-butanol, made from residual lignocellulosic feedstock or from molasses production, could save 71% of Fiji’s NDC target from sustainable biomass plantation and waste-to-energy (Singh 2020b).

Industrial, agricultural, or municipal waste is not extensively converted to energy in the region although bagasse is exploited in Australian and Fijian sugar industries and some piggery and food waste is diverted (ARENA 2020b). Gases from municipal and human wastes are captured and recovered in the larger repositories and processing plants (ARENA 2020b, Bioenergy Association 2020; Joseph and Prasad 2020b) but there are many unused opportunities (Nadan 2020; Bioenergy Association 2020). According to Nadan (2020), incineration and anaerobic digestion are more viable than other waste to energy technologies for PICTs, due to their lower costs and higher efficiency.

Bio-butanol, a petrol alternative made from waste lignocellulosic feedstock or from molasses production, could save 71% of Fiji’s NDC target from sustainable biomass plantation and waste-to-energy (Singh 2020b). The palm oil industry in Solomon Islands and PNG use waste oil palm fruit husks and shells as feedstock (Salomón et al. 2009), for heating of processing steam and for providing electricity for oil mills and staff housing.

Few PICs have seriously pursued energy efficiency to help mitigate the challenges faced related to climate change and heavy reliance on imported diesel fuel. To address these issues, the Pacific Appliance Labelling and Standards program (PALS 2019), was intended to support ten PICTs since 2012 to implement Minimum Energy Performance Standards and Labelling (Dethman et al. 2019), but the scheme is no longer active and seems to have not progressed beyond estimates of net energy savings (Johnston personal communication).

Table 12.1 shows the MEPSL status for the 10 PICTs participating in PALS at the time of evaluation (2019). Five PICs had enacted MEPSL legislation and five had drafted legislation.

The PALS experience suggests that if the settings are right, PICs can bypass more conservative voluntary strategies and pursue legislation directly. Passing MEPSL legislation establishes a baseline of high appliance efficiency and does not preclude complementary strategies. Qualitative results from PALS and global MEPSL programs suggest PALS provided good value for money: the average cost per PIC was AUD 50 K per year (Dethman et al. 2019), but it faced many challenges, and its success was not uniform (Table 12.1). Concern remains about how the other PICTs enhance energy efficiency. A technical guideline has been published (SEIAPI/PPA 2020) to support renewable energy installers to undertake basic energy audits.

At utility scale, PPA has implemented a benchmarking tool with assistance from the World Bank (PPA 2017), including data on generation, transmission, and distribution losses that could be used by the 21 member utilities to enhance overall efficiency (Nair 2019).

Affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy storage is a core component of energy transitioning. A wide range of storage technologies have been developed (Koohi-Fayegh and Rosen 2020), with differing levels of technological maturity, useful storage times, capacities, and costs. In particular, battery energy storage is in the midst of a revolution, with the workhorse of lead acid yielding market share to a range of newer technologies, most notably lithium-based and flow batteries, and costs are declining rapidly. Many storage methods may find application in the Pacific region but in the foreseeable future, batteries are likely to dominate, firstly in stand-alone and minigrid systems and later in grid connection, counteracting the intermittency of solar and wind supplies. Battery-free stand-alone solar water pumps (GSES 2015) are commonly designed to pump sufficient water to elevated storage tanks to satisfy demand despite intermittent availability of sunshine. Hydrogen will be required in future if the hydrogen-fueled applications mentioned below and in Chap. 18 of this volume penetrate the region.

The vastness of the region, the sparseness of the population, the remoteness from major markets, and for many PICTS, a low level of transport infrastructure development, challenging terrain, and frequent extreme weather events (MCST 2020) make land, sea, and air transport all vitally important but very energy intensive and expensive for the PICTs. The most vulnerable of the PICT population live on remote islands, for which maritime transport is often the routine way to connect to services such as health, education, and food supplies and are core to building economies (Pacific Community 2020). The reliance on imported fossil fuel for all three modes exacerbates the PICTs’ balances of payments (Juswanto and Ali 2016) and hastens climate change.

Water pumping in remote regions has long been an application in which solar power has been competitive with fossil-fuel energy, particularly since the intermittency of the solar supply can commonly be compensated by provision of pumped water storage rather than by batteries (Aliyu et al. 2018). PV pumps are cost effective, quiet, clean and need low maintenance (GSES 2015; Sontake and Kalamkar 2016; Chandel et al. 2017) and, thus, highly suited to expanded application in the Pacific region.

When information is unavailable and initial purchase price concerns dominate equipment choices, as is common for purchasers with low capital and poor access to credit, poor choices can result in high life-cycle costs (Sproul 2005; Sustainability Victoria 2015). A recent study of 17 UK water companies (Walker et al. 2020) found that, on average, companies could reduce energy inputs by 92% by reducing leaks, helping consumers reduce demand, reducing number of abstraction sources, and use of fewer larger treatment plants. There is little reason to expect that significant savings in energy costs are not also possible in PICTs.

Food security (see Chap. 4) implies availability of preservation and storage of local food supplies which, implies access to local energy supply. Refrigeration is one method and may be considered simply as an electrical load and electricity supply, covered elsewhere in this chapter. Solar thermal drying is an alternative, cost-effective, and sustainable method to conserve agricultural products (Curtis et al. 2015; Udomkun et al. 2020) but there has been low social acceptance of solar crop dryers in the Pacific (Vanuatu Daily Post 2012; Ligo 2015).

Geothermal heat, where easily accessible, might also be used to preserve agricultural produce (Nguyen et al. 2015) but is under-exploited.

While there are reasonable arguments that only a few of the region’s jurisdictions have had significant culpability in causing the climate change crisis, all have, nevertheless, joined with the global community to undertake their NDC measures (IRENA 2019b). In September 2019, the 44 Member States, including 15 from the Pacific, of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) presented the “SIDS Package” at the UN Climate Action Summit in 2019 (AOSIS 2019). This package includes a set of initiatives and partnerships that address all the climate action areas highlighted at the Summit: energy transition, industry transition, infrastructure, cities and local action, climate finance and carbon pricing, mitigation, nature-based solutions, resilience and adaptation, social and political drivers, and youth and public mobilization. It included a collective commitment to update their NDCs in 2020, to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, conditional on receiving necessary international assistance, and to pursue 100% renewable energy targets by 2030 (AOSIS, 2019). Renewable energy capacity is projected to boom in the SIDS, from 2.3 gigawatts (GW) in 2014 to 8.6GW in 2030 (IRENA 2019b). The Pacific Community (2020) invests in renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies, an enabling environment for transport and energy security, and capacity strengthening, including supporting the drafting of the regional energy security framework mentioned in the Introduction.

Lucas et al. (2017) analyzed the results of a 2013 survey of 32 PICTs stakeholders in the region and identified and assessed renewable energy deployment challenges in six categories: resource data, policy and regulation, financing, human resources (including education and training), infrastructure (including standards and guidelines), and social/cultural issues. They went on to make recommendations to overcome these challenges:

Similarly, Eras-Almeida and Egido-Aguilera (2019) identified, inter alia, that the least developed PICTs need to strengthen their weak regulatory frameworks and find appropriate business models to promote renewable energy and seek alternative funding sources other than foreign aid. The authors propose renewable energy service companies, competitive auctions, and tax incentives to achieve this.

Fortunately, there has been some steps already taken in the jurisdictions with the greatest capacity. Fiji has been the subject of extensive study of renewable energy progress and options (Singh 2020a) to meet the country’s NDC (Fiji Ministry of Economy 2017, 2018), identifying complex and interrelated barriers, considering just finance aspects alone (Anantharajah 2019). New Zealand’s electricity supply is already around 80% renewable (NZ Ministry of Business, Industry & Employment 2019) and a target of 100% renewable by 2035 (Woods 2019) and a legislated national goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 (NZ Government 2019).

The jurisdiction with the biggest regional impact, Australia, has excellent availability of energy resources, with economically demonstrated solar and wind resources estimated to be 75% greater than its combined coal, gas, oil, and uranium resources (BZE 2015), available information and a well-regarded Integrated System Plan (AEMO 2020) for grid electricity in the eastern states and South Australia. It “sets out the optimal development path needed for Australia’s energy system, with decision signposts to deliver the affordability, security, reliability, and emissions outcome for consumers through the energy transition” (AEMO 2020). Non-government organizations have also generated credible plans (Butler et al. 2020) but it remains to be seen whether implementation will follow. State governments in Australia have shown strong interest in encouraging renewable energy developments in the context of economic recovery from COVID-19 (State of Western Australia 2020; NSW Government 2020; Victoria State Government 2020) but Australia is lagging other developed countries in shutting coal-fired electricity infrastructure and transitioning to renewables (ATSE 2020; Jones et al. 2020; Morton and Readfearn 2020).

Solar (IRENA 2014; SolarGIS 2020; NASA 2020), wind (Global Wind Atlas 2019), and geothermal (Coro and Trumpy 2020) energy resource data have been made more accessible in recent years, thanks to local and international efforts. Open availability of information, including realistic costs information (ITP 2019) and examples (ITP 2013; IRENA 2020a) is providing valuable support.

In response to an absence of national standards, the Pacific Power Association and the Sustainable Energy Industry Association of the Pacific Islands (SEIAPI) developed 16 voluntary technical guidelines for the Pacific region (SEIAPI/PPA 2020) for designing, constructing, and maintaining PICT implementations of grid and off-grid PV, PV/fossil hybrid, PV/battery, and micro-hydro systems. Additional guidelines have been produced for solar water pumping, solar water heating, control/data acquisition systems, and energy efficiency. However, an effective joint regional collaboration is considered important to create awareness and ensure in-country adoption.

Training and knowledge exchange have long been identified as essential parts of successful energy transition (Gregory and McNelis 1994; Lucas et al. 2017). Over the last 5–8 years donors have spent in excess of USD 1 billion on solar projects in the Pacific region that included hardware (Keeley 2017) but there have been negligible amounts spent on training and capacity building (Stapleton and Kumar 2020).

In 2011, SEIAPI and the University of the South Pacific formed the Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Training Competency Standards Advisory Committee (REEETCSAC) (Stapleton 2016). In order to obtain provisional certification, individuals must attend training courses that use the competency standards developed and approved by the REEETCSAC in their curricula. SEIAPI and PPA also introduced, and relaunched in 2014, the PPA/SEIAPI Certification/Accreditation Program, an industry-based certification and accreditation scheme for individuals and organizations, supporting the development of a high-quality sustainable energy industry (SEIAPI/PPA 2020) and more are proposed. The EU-PacTVET project (Shaw 2015) focused on training for climate change and sustainable energy and led to the development of courses for Certificate I, II, III and IV in Sustainable Energy.

From 2018 to 2020, as part of the SEIDP (Sustainable Energy Industry Development Project), SEIAPI/PPA ran 34 4-day workshops based on the technical guidelines (SEIAPI/PPA 2020) in 12 PICTs, benefitting around 638 different participants (Fig. 12.5). Also, under this project, two sub-regional workshops on PV Operations and Maintenance and SCADA were facilitated in 2018 for the utility members of PPA.

A. a photo of a group of men holding large solar panels and standing in front of a building. B. a photo of solar energy generation set up with men around looking into it.

Furthermore, through SEIDP, PPA and SEIAPI updated old and developed new competency standards on renewable energy and energy efficiency under the Pacific Register of Qualifications and Standards (DFAT 2016). These standards are relevant to design, installation, operation, and maintenance of off-grid and grid connected PV, solar water pumping, solar water heating, micro hydro power, and grid connected PV/ battery systems and residential energy efficiency.

In 2019, GIZ (2020) purchased for PPA a license to use GSES training resource material for four courses on grid connected PV, off-grid PV, PV/fuel generator hybrid systems, and grid connected PV with battery energy storage. Furthermore, using these training resources, GIZ supported development of a training center at Solomon Islands National University (Fig. 12.6) and facilitated Training of Trainers. Based on the positive feedback of this initiative and upon reaching normalcy after COVID-19 pandemic, there should a high possibility of expanding this support to other countries in the Pacific in the coming years, with a strong focus by SEIAPI to make more training avenues accessible for their members.

A photograph of the G I Z-funded P V setup fixed on the wall.

The small but variable populations of the PICTs is a major challenge to having sustainable quality training programs delivered through the region. To mitigate this issue, in 2019, Pacific Region Infrastructure Facility (PRIF 2020) administered a regional training program scoping study in 2019, intended to investigate and confirm training needs in the energy sector which can be best addressed by a regional approach. During the time of writing, the recommendations and outcomes of this report were yet to be finalized but there are reasons to believe that the outcomes will accelerate regional training.

The effectiveness of aid projects is a major topic on its own and space does not permit its proper treatment here. Considering island communities, Hills et al. (2018) warned that innovation concerns, not just technology and economics terms, but also governance (Sandu et al. 2020), culture, and a multidisciplinary understanding is required for effective local responses. Their village off-grid solar case study indicates inadequate community engagement, management, maintenance, and monitoring, leading to poor outcomes, showing that some of the problems identified long ago (Gregory and McNelis 1994) have persisted. Improved planning of the socio-technological aspects could help strengthen communities’ resilience. On the other hand, there are examples in the region of excellent guides (Bushlight 2011; SEIAPI/PPA 2020; ITP 2013) based on long experience and successful projects.

Keeley (2017) identified that international aid supporting high renewable energy targets needs well-structured plans, effective regulatory bodies, and close attention to financial aspects of utilities. Encouragingly, Betzold (2016) observed a greater recent international aid emphasis on renewables for energy and on off-grid solar in particular, including on non-hardware aspects such as capacity building, training, and policymaking.