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Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft
Erschienen in: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 2/2017

16.12.2016

Risks of the German Power Supply System

Difference between Risk Assessments from the Insurance Industry and Energy Technicians

verfasst von: Dirk Wrede, Tim Linderkamp, Miguel Rodriguez Gonzalez

Erschienen in: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft | Ausgabe 2/2017

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Abstract

The German power supply system is experiencing a phase of radical change. The insurance industry designed this transformation not only as a property insurance donor, but also as an institutional investor. The emphasis of this commitment is based on their own assessment of the risks to which this supply system has been exposed. This study compares risk assessment designs from the insurance industry with that from technical network managers and shows in which the assessments significantly differ. For example, the insurance company’s risk assessment of natural disasters and cyber-attacks is much greater in terms of probability of occurrence and the potential of damage than the assessment of energy experts.
Vorheriger Artikel State of the German Short-Term Power Market
Nächster Artikel Green Project Bonds als finanzielle Alternative für Energieunternehmen

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Fußnoten
1
For the effects of the 1998 ice storm in Canada, see Chang et al. (2007); for the consequences of the gas conflict between Russia and the Ukraine see, for example, Torres et al. (2009). Regarding the impacts of the United States and Canadian blackouts in 2003, see U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force (2004); for the 2003 Italian blackout, see Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE) (2004); for the European Blackout in 2006, see van der Vleuten and Lagendijk (2010); for major blackouts from 2003 to 2015, see Veloza and Santamaria (2016).
 
2
We use the term “energy risks” synonymously for all risks in this study, for those that threaten the German power supply system directly or indirectly, or result from the system itself.
 
3
See Section 2.
 
4
The PESTEL analysis is the standard model to scan a company’s environment. PESTEL covers political, economic, social, technological, ecological, and legal risks. See also Johnson et al. (2013). For the PESTEL analysis as a risk analysis method, see Burt et al. (2006); Gassner (2009); Sachs et al. (2008).
 
5
The descriptions of the risks from the survey are listed in the appendix, in Table 10.
 
6
Regarding Sherman Kent’s rating scale and its recommendation, see also Meyer and Booker (1991).
 
7
For the evaluation, the respondents who indicated themselves as active in application-oriented research are included in the energy engineers’ group. This is for two reasons: the low-quantity research group (n = 2) has no meaningful results; second, it can be assumed that application-oriented researchers assess energy system risks from a more technical perspective.
 
8
This estimation could result from the current merit-order system, because the respondents were asked to use a time frame, which lasts from three to five years. In the long run non-profitable power plants will leave the market and the price for electricity will stabilize.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Risks of the German Power Supply System
Difference between Risk Assessments from the Insurance Industry and Energy Technicians
verfasst von
Dirk Wrede
Tim Linderkamp
Miguel Rodriguez Gonzalez
Publikationsdatum
16.12.2016
Verlag
Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
Erschienen in
Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft / Ausgabe 2/2017
Print ISSN: 0343-5377
Elektronische ISSN: 1866-2765
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-016-0191-6

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