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2023 | Buch

Introduction and Overview Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transitions

Dynamic Modeling, Empirics, and Policies

verfasst von: Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Contributions to Economics

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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SUCHEN

Über dieses Buch

Given the industrialized world’s historical dependence on fossil fuel-based energy resources and the now-realized perils of moving beyond the earth’s carbon budget, this book explores the myriad challenges of climate change and in reaching a low-carbon economy. Reconciling the medium-term competing, yet frequently complementary, needs for transition policies, the book provides guidelines for complex and often conflicting climate policy tasks.

The book presents empirical trends in the use of carbon-emitting resources and evaluates market-driven short-termism and its adverse impact on resource use and the environment; it emphasizes a medium-term macroeconomic perspective for the transition. The authors attempt a paradigm shift towards a framework of sustainable macroeconomics. They survey relevant historical models, conduct empirical and numerical analyses of the climate change-relevant dynamic models, provide empirical illustrations, and evaluate diverse policy options and implementations together with their historical evolution. New analytical issues are also considered, e.g., strategic behavior in the energy and resource sectors, energy competition and the dynamics of market shares in new energy technology, and supporting policies for dealing with the tipping points encountered in climate change. The authors suggest a multitude of market-based strategies and public fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, and longer-run planning for resource extraction -all suitable for driving sustainable growth and a transformation of the energy sector. The book also examines the multiple delaying forces slowing the transition to a low-carbon economy; these typically arise from short-termism, lock-ins, irreversibility, leakages, non-cooperative games, and other political strategies. Thus, they explain the snail’s pace evolution of current national and global climate policies.

The book will appeal to scholars and students of economics and environmental science. It is also relevant for policymakers and practitioners in multilateral institutions, research institutions as well as governments and ministries of countries interested in alternative energy sources, climate economists, and those who study the implementation of sustainable and low carbon-based policies.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview
Abstract
Although many credit John Tyndall with having discovered the greenhouse effect in 1859, it may in fact have first been described by a woman, Eunice Foote, who identified the process in 1856, three years earlier, in a paper in The American Journal of Science and Arts.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 2. Sustainable Growth, Welfare, and Short-Termism
Abstract
Much theoretically oriented literature has focused on what has been called sustainable and inclusive growth. That literature lays out a framework for evaluating natural resources while considering the environment and addressing distributional issues between generations. In this chapter, we discuss welfare criteria and different approaches that permit us to study social, environmental, as well as longer-run intergenerational equity challenges. This leads to a discussion of alternative measurements of welfare and wealth. We also provide a review of empirical studies and stylized facts on short-termism and its impact on resource extraction and climate change.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 3. Non-sustainable Growth, Resource Extraction, and Boom-Bust Cycles
Abstract
In this chapter, we study the perils of non-sustainable growth, which often take the shape of a boom-bust cycle. These frequently emerge from the high volatility seen in resource production, prices, over-leveraging, and from their impact on macroeconomic stability. The evolution of external debt is often related to short-termism in economic, financial, and policy decision-making. In fact, as resource-rich countries become more globalized, the economy becomes more vulnerable through increased commodity exports and fluctuations in their prices. Inevitably, the traditional simple models of a closed economy had to give way to extended versions which would allow for dynamic and open growth, driven by foreign trade, current and capital accounts, and external finance. We focus on countries that borrowed heavily from abroad and thus became vulnerable to external shocks. When resource prices decline sharply, many developing resource-rich countries experience a debt crisis and face a jump in borrowing costs; this, in turn, may trigger internal real and financial crises. We replicate those scenarios by employing numerical solutions of some model variants and trace out the impact of commodity boom-bust cycles, trade balances, and foreign debt. We emphasize those general features of exhaustible resources and their extraction dynamics since they are also inherited, as it were, by the extraction and use of fossil fuels; these will be dealt with in the next chapter.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 4. Fossil Fuel Resources, Environment, and Climate Change
Abstract
In this chapter, we address the link between CO2 emissions and the extraction and use of fossil fuels. Quite reasonably, many economists presume that CO2 emissions result from economic activity. Thus, it is essential that we study fossil fuel resources, their reserves, their discovery, their extraction, and their consumption. The magnitude and vicissitudes of these processes affect society’s welfare and environment and are the main drivers of climate change. We study carbon-generating fuels, particularly oil, gas, and coal, and discuss the negative externalities thus created. Historical trends in such resource usage and demand are addressed together with resource prices, particularly oil, and their effects on the economy.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 5. Limits on the Extraction of Fossil Fuels
Abstract
In this chapter, we present a study of non-renewable resources and their optimal extraction as it was proposed by Hotelling (1931) together with the predictions of their price movements over time. We contrast Hotelling’s predictions with the actual price movements. While Hotelling mostly assumes competitive markets, we use a monopolistic market structure. Empirical facts are replicated by presenting numerical solutions of the dynamic paths for the extraction of resources, price movements, and their impact on the environment and sustainable growth. Most importantly, we detect U-shaped patterns and monotonically increasing trends in resource prices in later periods; these are associated with a decline in discoveries and availability of reserves.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 6. Fossil Fuel Resource Depletion, Backstop Technology, and Renewable Energy
Abstract
In this chapter we will lay out how economic analysts became aware of the increasing side effects of the use of fossil fuel-based energy and the potential for disasters that could arise therefrom.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 7. Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System
Abstract
In this chapter, we present historical trends related to carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affecting the carbon budget. This documents the fact that the use of fossil fuels, coal in particular, creates a very large negative externality. We present a dynamic model starting from a mixed energy sector with fossil fuel and renewable energy and indicate different pathways to the decarbonization of the economies of advanced and developing countries.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 8. The Private Sector—Energy Transitions and Financial Market
Abstract
This chapter focuses on the private sector and energy transitions. If renewable energy is the key to a low-carbon economy and is essential to the fulfillment of the Paris agreement, there has to be a large scaling-up of renewable energy supplies. These are mostly produced by the private sector. But it needs to be considered how the usually small-scale renewable energy firms can be phased in, given that the large-scale fossil fuel energy firms dominate the market.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 9. The Public Sector—Energy Transition and Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Abstract
After having explored to what extent the private real sector and the financial market can be a roadblock or a bridge to a low-carbon economy, we now move to the public sector and macroeconomic policies. We focus on dynamic macro models as guidance for climate policies that can support mitigation and adaptation efforts concerning climate protection and the role of broader public policies that will promote and incentivize the energy transition. More specifically, we explore the fiscal resources that should be spent on climate-related infrastructure, mitigation, and adaptation efforts. We will also allow for public borrowing, at least as much as it is sustainable helpful on climate risks. We will also study to what extent monetary policy can be helpful on climate change issues.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 10. Delaying Forces and Climate Negotiation—Games, Lock-ins, Leakages, and Tipping Points
Abstract
In practice, not all of the above dynamic decision models yield policies that are as efficient and optimal as might be desired. Thus, the real question is if they are sufficiently accurate to provide useful guidance as to implementable policy. Many of the previously discussed versions of the climate-macro link work with intertemporal optimizing behavior. However, we should acknowledge that there is some legitimate criticism of those same models. For example, behavioral approaches that do not presume optimizing behavior are also widely applied in the field. Endowing decision-making institutions and policymakers with more realistic features will also shed some light on why the environmental and climate policy creation has taken so long, and indeed, may be expected to proceed slowly. We provide three model-based illustrations exemplifying the proverbial snail’s pace of negotiations and policy creation.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 11. Climate Risks, Sustainable Finance, and Climate Policy
Abstract
Given the historically excessive use of fossil fuel energy resources and the perils of moving beyond the earth’s carbon budget, we have explored the challenges in reaching a low carbon economy. In Chap. 7, we started with the dynamic modeling of a mixed energy sector, then in Chap. 8, we considered the market and competition dynamics of how renewable energy can become the dominant energy source while fossil fuel is gradually phased out. In Chap. 9, we elaborated on dynamic macro models and how they can become proper guidance for sustainable macro policies in the transition to better climate protection policy. In Chap. 10, we studied the delayed effects and obstacles to scaling up effective climate strategies. Next, we focus explicitly on a variety of sectoral as well as financial and macro policies that can support the transition. In the last decades, there were severe crises and oil market turbulences that impacted climate protection policies.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Chapter 12. Concluding Remarks
Abstract
The need for urgent policy action to protect the earth’s climate, natural wealth, and the welfare of society against climate extreme events is stressed in IPCC (2021, 2022a, b) reports and at climate change summits, e.g., the COP26 Glasgow conference. These reports and meetings have expressed an immediate need for more commitments and climate policy action. Even with a global temperature increase to \(1.5\,^{\circ }\textrm{C}\), and the accompanying extreme weather events, there are great perils ahead. Yet, if a further rise of temperature up to \(2\,^{\circ }\textrm{C}\), \(3\,^{\circ }\textrm{C}\), or even \(4\,^{\circ }\textrm{C}\), as compared to the pre-industrial era, is likely to occur, then an acceleration of extreme weather events is certain.
Unurjargal Nyambuu, Willi Semmler
Metadaten
Titel
Sustainable Macroeconomics, Climate Risks and Energy Transitions
verfasst von
Unurjargal Nyambuu
Willi Semmler
Copyright-Jahr
2023
Electronic ISBN
978-3-031-27982-9
Print ISBN
978-3-031-27981-2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27982-9

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