The Geography of Trade Liberalization

Peru’s Free Trade Continuity in Comparative Perspective

verfasst von: Omar Awapara

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Latin American Political Economy

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This book answers why anti-trade forces in developing countries sometimes fail to effectively exert pressure on their governments. The backlash against globalization spread across several Latin American countries in the 2000s, yet a few countries such as Peru doubled down on their bets on free trade by signing bilateral agreements with the US and the EU. This study uses evidence from three Latin American countries (Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia) to suggest that geography can play a significant role in shaping trade preferences and undermining the formation and clout of distributional coalitions that seek protectionism. Because trade liberalization can have uneven distributional impacts along regional lines, trade liberalization losers can find themselves in unfavorable conditions to associate and engage in collective action. Under these circumstances, few coalitions emerge to battle for protection in the policy arena, and when they do, geographic distance from decision-makers in the capital city can be a significant barrier to realizing their interests. As a result, even where a majority of the population living in regions that have not benefitted from trade elect a leftist president, trade reform reversal will not occur unless protectionist interests are close to the capital city. The contrast between Peru, on one side, and Argentina and Bolivia, on the other, highlights the powerful influence geography can have on reversing trade policy or preserving the status quo.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Abstract

This chapter outlines the argument, key concepts, theoretical relevance, and research design of this study. The goal of this book is to show that geography influences the formation and clout of the distributional coalitions that seek protection from the state, which can explain why some countries in Latin America reversed free trade policies while in others, such as Peru, they have only deepened in the last two decades. In finding that geographical variables play a significant role in preference formation, preference aggregation, and preference intermediation with regard to protectionism, this study seeks to connect the building blocks behind trade policy, from an individual level up to policy outcomes. In terms of methodological design, it exploits subnational variation in Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia to explain cross-country differences in trade policy.

Omar Awapara

Chapter 2. A Geography-Based Theory of Trade Policy

Abstract

This chapter presents a geography-based theory of trade policy that seeks to explain under what conditions free trade is more likely to be resisted in developing countries. The first part of the argument establishes the geographical impact that trade liberalization has had in Latin American countries, and that individuals are more likely to support free trade if they live in labor-intensive exporting regions and oppose it if they live in areas where trade has not had a positive impact. Second, the argument is that actors demanding protection are more likely to coalesce into social organizations when there is a concentration of experienced activists capable of rebuilding collective action using new vehicles to replace social organizations weakened by neoliberal reforms. This theory seeks to explain why each country has a different pattern of trade-related protests, which tend to be clustered in specific areas and absent in others. The third and final part argues that trade policy reversal is more likely when the bulk of the population lives in areas that saw little improvement or were negatively affected by trade liberalization, which makes the election of a leftist leader more likely. Nevertheless, the presence of organized pressure is necessary to ensure that the elected president follows through with the anti-trade mandate. This organized pressure is more likely to be effective when protectionist forces are located near the capital city.

Omar Awapara

Chapter 3. The Regional Impact of Free Trade: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This chapter empirically tests what factors can better predict support for trade liberalization, the first part of the argument. The hypothesis is that support for free trade should be higher in those areas of a country with labor-intensive exporting activities. In order to evaluate it, this section relies on Latinobarometer and LAPOP public opinion surveys combined with subnational information on trade. In addition, the statistical analysis is complemented with qualitative data collected from secondary sources in each of the three countries as well as from fieldwork in Peru. The results confirm subnational variation in trade preferences according to the expectations set up by the geography-based theory.

Omar Awapara

Chapter 4. Trade-Related Protests in Post-reform Latin America

Abstract

This chapter first presents a qualitative discussion of Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia to assess the theoretical expectations regarding preference aggregation. In each case, I begin by describing the geographic pattern of trade-related protests, and then proceed to explain this pattern based on the location and concentration of experienced activists in each country. I follow that discussion with a statistical analysis of trade-related protests, in which I test my hypothesis using subnational data to identify patterns of contention in Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia between 2000 and 2006, where I employ an original dataset of protest events.

Omar Awapara

Chapter 5. Geography and Trade Reform in Latin America

Abstract

This chapter provides evidence to support the claim that trade reform reversal was more likely after the election of a leftist candidate and when protectionist forces had a stronger influence in policymaking. Both conditions are explained partly by geographical factors. The electoral strength of leftist candidates is related to the geographic impact of trade liberalization, and the likelihood of having an anti-trade president increases when losing areas are heavily populated. In turn, the geographical location of protectionist forces can also have a determinant effect on policymaking. A contentious event in a remote area of the country does not have the same weight or impact as protestors flooding the streets of the capital city. Proximity to the seat of power conveys specific interests and demands in a much more powerful way.

Omar Awapara

Chapter 6. Conclusion

Abstract

This chapter summarizes the argument and the main findings of the book. There are two main questions that have been addressed. First, how did the integration of Latin America into the global economy shape the preferences of individuals and sectors within each country? With this question, trade preferences and their aggregation into organizations seeking to influence national (trade) politics are the dependent variable, or the outcome, to be explained. The answer to this question can help us answer the second question (which ultimately motivates this project), namely, under what circumstances do Latin American countries decide to reverse free trade policies? In this case, the question is about the political determinants of anti-globalization measures, and the success or failure of protectionist coalitions that aim to see their interests represented. The chapter finishes with the aftermath of the three cases examined and theoretical issues and avenues for further research.

Omar Awapara

Backmatter

Titel: The Geography of Trade Liberalization
verfasst von: Omar Awapara
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-031-23420-0
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-23419-4
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-23420-0

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Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. A Geography-Based Theory of Trade Policy

Chapter 3. The Regional Impact of Free Trade: An Empirical Analysis

Chapter 4. Trade-Related Protests in Post-reform Latin America

Chapter 5. Geography and Trade Reform in Latin America

Chapter 6. Conclusion

Backmatter

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