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2024 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Risk Prioritisation

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Abstract

Qualitative project risk assessment is standard practice in project management and involves prioritising risks using a probability and impact matrix. Due to the shortcomings of using this tool for risk prioritisation (poor resolution, errors, suboptimal resource allocation or ambiguous inputs and outputs, among others), we propose a quantitative prioritisation of project risks in this article, analysing the impact of each risk on the project’s duration and cost objectives.

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Literature
go back to reference Acebes, F., De Antón, J., Villafáñez, F., Poza, D.: A matlab-based educational tool for quantitative risk analysis. In: Márquez, F.P.G., Ramírez, I.S., Sánchez, P.J.B., Muñoz, A., del Río, (eds.) IoT and Data Science in Engineering Management: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management and XXVI Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización, pp. 42–46. Springer International Publishing, Cham (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27915-7_8CrossRef Acebes, F., De Antón, J., Villafáñez, F., Poza, D.: A matlab-based educational tool for quantitative risk analysis. In: Márquez, F.P.G., Ramírez, I.S., Sánchez, P.J.B., Muñoz, A., del Río, (eds.) IoT and Data Science in Engineering Management: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management and XXVI Congreso de Ingeniería de Organización, pp. 42–46. Springer International Publishing, Cham (2023). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​978-3-031-27915-7_​8CrossRef
go back to reference Axelos: Managing Successful Projects with PRINCE2®. 6th Editio. Edited by AXELOS Limited. TSO (The Stationery Office) (2017) Axelos: Managing Successful Projects with PRINCE2®. 6th Editio. Edited by AXELOS Limited. TSO (The Stationery Office) (2017)
go back to reference European Commission: Project Management Methodology. Guide 3.0. Edited by European Union. Brussels/Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union (2018) European Commission: Project Management Methodology. Guide 3.0. Edited by European Union. Brussels/Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union (2018)
go back to reference International Organization for Standardization (2019) ‘ISO/IEC 31010:2019 Risk management - Risk assessment techniques’ International Organization for Standardization (2019) ‘ISO/IEC 31010:2019 Risk management - Risk assessment techniques’
go back to reference Project Management Institute: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBoK(R) Guide. Seventh Edition, 7th edn. Project Management Institute Inc., Newtown Square, Pennsylvania (2021) Project Management Institute: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBoK(R) Guide. Seventh Edition, 7th edn. Project Management Institute Inc., Newtown Square, Pennsylvania (2021)
Metadata
Title
Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Risk Prioritisation
Authors
Fernando Acebes
David Curto
José Manuel González-Varona
Javier Pajares
Copyright Year
2024
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57996-7_78

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