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2023 | Buch

A Brief Overview of the Quantum-Like Formalism in Social Science Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Quantum Decision Theory and Complexity Modelling in Economics and Public Policy

herausgegeben von: Anirban Chakraborti, Emmanuel Haven, Sudip Patra, Naresh Singh

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : New Economic Windows

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

This book is an outcome of the interdisciplinary conference held at OP Jindal Global University (Quantum Decision-making and Complexity modeling, and their possible applications in social sciences－ economics, finance and public policy). The volume builds upon the emerging fields of Econophysics, Complexity theory and Quantum like modelling in cognition and social sciences, and their plausible applications in economics and public policy. There can be deep linkages between the micro, meso and macro scales at which these paradigms operate. In this data-driven age, greater amounts of information, along with the facility to harvest, sort and process said information, have permitted an expansion of the capability to study a society’s various factors to a degree of detail and inclusiveness that has never before been available to researchers. As a result, an increasing number of throughlines is being discovered, revealing heretofore unknown connections between various disciplines and enhancing the study of such societal tropes as finance, language, shared behavior, and many others. As the reader will see, with clearer understanding of the interconnectedness of society’s assorted parts comes a clearer understanding of the society as a whole. We have received critical thoughts from noted experts in social and natural sciences to explore possible interconnections. The editors of this book earnestly hope that the critical reviews presented in this volume will stimulate further scholarly interest, but also interest among policy practitioners for the purpose of exploring possibilities for creating a new paradigm for comprehending pressing issues of deep uncertainty and emergence in social dynamics.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Quantum Decision Theory

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. A Brief Overview of the Quantum-Like Formalism in Social Science
Abstract
This paper provides for a general overview of some of the main areas of applications where we believe the formalism from quantum mechanics has been (and can be) fruitfully applied. Over the past decade, progress has been made on using elements of this formalism in decision making models but also in data retrieval approaches and even in areas such as finance.
Andrei Khrennikov, Emmanuel Haven
Chapter 2. Cooperative Functioning of Unconscious and Consciousness from Theory of Open Quantum Systems
Abstract
We present the mathematical model of cooperative functioning of unconscious and consciousness. The model is based on the theory of open quantum systems. Unconscious and consciousness are treated as bio-information systems. The latter plays the role a measurement apparatus for the former. States of both systems are represented in Hilbert spaces. Consciousness performs measurements on the states which are generated in unconscious. This process of unconscious-conscious interaction is described by the scheme of indirect measurements. This scheme is widely used in quantum information theory and it leads to the theory of quantum instruments (Davis-Lewis-Ozawa). Our approach is known as quantum-like modeling. It should be sharply distinguished from modeling of genuine quantum physical processes in biosystems, in particular, in the brain. In the quantum-like framework, the brain is a black box processing information in the accordance with the laws of quantum theory. During the last 10–15 years this framework has been actively used in cognition, psychology, decision making, social and political sciences. The quantum-like scheme of unconscious-consciousness functioning has already been explored for sensation-perception modeling.
Andrei Khrennikov
Chapter 3. Hilbert Space Modelling with Applications in Classical Optics, Human Cognition, and Game Theory
Abstract
In this chapter we provide first a basic introduction to Hilbert space modelling, and its applications outside typical quantum mechanics, for example in classical optics, and human cognition. We then present briefly our framework of human cognition model, which we have called, COM: classical optical modelling. Though our chapter is based on the background of and in the wake of quantum-like modelling in cognition, game theory, and different social science areas, our approach differs from the extant models since we follow the Hilbert space modelling in classical optics, with novel features like classical entanglement which can also be exploited in game theory. Hence, we aim to contribute in cognition as well as quantum-like modelling in game theory.
Partha Ghose, Sudip Patra
Chapter 4. Remodeling Leadership: Quantum Modeling of Wise Leadership
Abstract
Since the late 90s a paradigm shift began in decision research that has implications for leadership research. Due to the limitations of standard decision theory (based on Kolmogorovian/Bayesian decision theory) scholars began to build a new theory based on the ontological and epistemological foundations of quantum mechanics. The last decade has witnessed a surge in quantum-like modeling in the social sciences beyond decisionmaking with notable success. Many anomalies in human behavior, viz, order effects, failure of the sure thing principle, and conjunction and disjunction effects are now more thoroughly explained through quantum modeling. The focus of this paper is, therefore, to link leadership with quantum modeling and theory. We believe a new paradigm can emerge through this wedding of ideas which would facilitate better understandings of leadership. This article introduces readers to the mathematical analytical processes that quantum research has developed that can create new insights in the social scientific study of leadership.
David Rooney, Sudip Patra
Chapter 5. Quantum Financial Entanglement: The Case of Strategic Default
Abstract
According to the field of quantum cognition, a decision to act is best expressed as a quantum process, where entangled ideas and feelings combine and interfere in the mind to produce a complex, context-dependent response. While the quantum approach has proved successful at modeling many aspects of human behavior, it may be less clear how relevant this is to the economy. This paper argues that the financial system is characterized by three kinds of entanglement: at the individual level between concepts, at the social level with other people, and at the financial level through the use of credit. These entanglements combine in such a way that cognitive processes at the individual level scale up to affect the economy as a whole, in a manner which is best modeled using quantum techniques. The approach is illustrated by making a retroactive “postdiction” about the prevalence of strategic mortgage default during the financial crisis.
David Orrell
Chapter 6. Quantum-Like Contextual Utility Framework Application in Economic Theory and Wider Implications
Abstract
Quantum-like modeling is a new but well received paradigm in social science that draws from various mathematical tools used in quantum science, such as information theory. However, we argue that there are deeper meta-principles, such as Contextuality-complementarity, Uncertainty, and Non-locality, that give meaning to these models. These meta-principles are equally applicable in both the physical and cognitive domains, but with different specific measures. It is important to exercise caution and recognize that economic theory should not be equated with quantum theory per se. In this paper, we demonstrate a simple application of quantum-like modelling in financial economics, specifically in the much-debated portfolio diversification theory given radical uncertainty. Our findings suggest that quantum-like modelling can provide a useful framework for understanding complex financial systems and making informed investment decisions.
Sudip Patra, Sivani Yeddanapudi

Complexity Modeling in Economics and Public Policy

Frontmatter
Chapter 7. Complexity Economics: Why Does Economics Need This Different Approach?
Abstract
This is the reproduction of the talk given earlier at Santa Fe Institute which has appeared in the volume Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's Fall 2019 Symposium.
W. Brian Arthur
Chapter 8. Policy and Program Design and Evaluation in Complex Situations
Abstract
As the complexity in the world increases due to increased interconnections, new communication technologies, and the widespread internet of things so too is the complexity of the public policy space changing. However, much of public policy analysis, formulation, analysis and monitoring and evaluation is being done like it was for the last 80 years or more since the beginning of the policy sciences as the formal study of public policy as a social science. Over the last 2- or 3-decades complexity science ideas have been increasingly applied in the social sciences to deal with social systems and other arenas of interest to public policy which displayed complex adaptive systems characteristics such as ecosystems. This has resulted in some refreshingly new ways of thinking of wicked policy problems and even in some new social science sub-disciplines like complexity economics. Yet a chasm exists between these developments and the use of complexity sciences in the teaching and practice of public policy. This chapter brings together in a selected way a lot that has been learned in the use of complexity thinking in public policy and summarizes the practical tools that can be used for policy and program design and evaluation in complex situations.
Naresh Singh
Chapter 9. Market State Dynamics in Correlation Matrix Space
Abstract
The concept of states of financial markets based on correlations has gained increasing attention during the last 10 years. We propose to retrace some important steps up to 2018, and then give a more detailed view of recent developments that attempt to make the use of this more practical. Finally, we try to give a glimpse to the future proposing the analysis of trajectories in correlation matrix space directly or in terms of symbolic dynamics as well as attempts to analyze the clusters that make up the states in a random matrix context.
Hirdesh K. Pharasi, Suchetana Sadhukhan, Parisa Majari, Anirban Chakraborti, Thomas H. Seligman
Chapter 10. Interstate Migration and Spread of Covid-19 in Indian States
Abstract
There has been a huge impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Indian economy. Almost all the sectors of the economy have been severely impacted. The vulnerability of the economy was highest after the imposition of the nationwide lockdown in March 2020, when thousands of migrant workers were forced to return to their homes from the large or metropolitan cities of the country. After the lockdown was lifted and some months passed, people had started migrating again to their workplaces. However, at the advent of the second wave and state-wise lockdowns imposed, a similar exodus of migrants was seen. While this humanitarian crisis and the associated government policies in India have been heavily discussed in the national and international policy discourses, there has been no systematic study or estimates of the mobility of migrants during the pandemic. Moreover, although reverse migration has been perceived to be one of the primary reasons for the spread of the virus in the Indian states, there is still no study showing the exact relationship between reverse interstate migration and the spread of Covid-19 cases in Indian states, most probably due to unavailability of a consistent dataset. This has further affected policymaking for tackling the crisis. In this paper, first, we have tried to construct a proxy dataset of “reverse migration” using interstate train running information during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. To understand the complex trend and pattern of interstate human mobility during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, we construct the complex networks of mobility of people using the train running data. Then, we have carried out an econometric exercise to identify the relationship between reverse migration and the spread of Covid-19 in different Indian states, using both the train running information data that we have constructed, as well as the Census-2011 data on migration. The results show that both train migration and census migration have positive and significant impact on the spread of the Covid-19 cases in the Indian states. Besides migration, population density per square kilometre, percentage of the urban population, and state per capita income were also found to have a positive impact on the spread of the virus. Moreover, we found that the availability of hospital beds in different states has helped to reduce the spread of the virus.
Debajit Jha, Suhaas Neel, Hrishidev, Anirban Chakraborti
Chapter 11. Trade Intervention Under the Belt and Road Initiative with Asian Economies
Abstract
International trade and association are the key contributors to economic integration and cohesion. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an auspicious development initiation taken by the Chinese government to endorse the logistics and infrastructure expansion under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) so that economic cohesion can be achieved between China and its trading partners. After half a decade of the BRI initiative, arguments have been elevated whether this remained profitable for the connected partner countries in the long run. Against this backdrop, this paper tries to estimate the trade performance of participating and connecting country’s using the traditional gravity model along with neural network model. The paper is set to examine whether the BRI is certainly a worthwhile initiative for Asian economics by associating the relative estimation powers of the two mentioned techniques using bilateral trade flow from 1990 to 2019 of 32 Asian partner countries.
Sunetra Ghatak, Sayantan Roy
Chapter 12. Innovation Diffusion with Intergroup Suppression: A Complexity Perspective
Abstract
We present a new model for the diffusion of innovation. Here, the population is segmented into distinct groups. Adoption by a particular group of some cultural product may be inhibited both by large numbers of its own members already having adopted but also, in particular, by members of another group having adopted. Intergroup migration is also permitted. We determine the equilibrium points and carry out stability analysis for the model for a two-group population. We also simulate a discrete time version of the model. Lastly, we present data on tablet use in eight countries from 2012 to 2016 and show that the relationship between use in the “under 25” age group and “55+” age group conforms to the model.
Syed Shariq Husain, Joseph Whitmeyer, Anirban Chakraborti
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Quantum Decision Theory and Complexity Modelling in Economics and Public Policy
herausgegeben von
Anirban Chakraborti
Emmanuel Haven
Sudip Patra
Naresh Singh
Copyright-Jahr
2023
Electronic ISBN
978-3-031-38833-0
Print ISBN
978-3-031-38832-3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38833-0

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